The polls have been shown to have a bias towards Democrats. They poll only registered voters, not likely voters. Rasmussen is the only pollster who tests likely voters, and his latest tracking poll has Romney ahead by 48-43.2. As discussed in previous columns, a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president reveals that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote. Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.
So when polls show President Obama at 45 percent of the vote, they are really reflecting a likely 55-45 Romney victory, at the very least
The point is that Obama has given Romney his best shots, spent $100 million to smear Romney’s character, and failed to move the polls anywhere. Obama’s popularity is down in the low 40′s, and shrinking…and we are three months from the election with the economic numbers getting worse and worse. His numbers are dropping in each of his key constituencies, black voters, Hispanic, Jewish, youth, Catholic, small business owners, suburban moms, military veterans… Yesterday’s New York Times/CBS News poll clearly demonstrates that Independents’s view of the president has been profoundly diminished– on both approval and favorability measures
By November, his supporters will be staying home, and his opponents will be energized by gaffes such as he made the other day. Obama’s campaign has been a disaster, and can only get worse, since he is cash-poor, while Romney is just beginning.
I have few doubts that Obama is going down. I am optimistic about a landslide.